Year-end report: 2021, a year when China encounters "ambush on all sides" 

Year-end report: 2021, a year when China encounters "ambush on all sides" 

In 2021, the CCP will continue to destroy the legal system and freedom in Hong Kong, create "genocide" in Xinjiang, conduct military intimidation against Taiwan, economic coercion against countries such as Australia and Lithuania, and try to export the so-called "Chinese model." In addition, during this year, the CCP has also strengthened its control over private enterprises, and its control over public opinion and information has also reached a new level. The CCP’s various practices have made many countries feel uneasy and worried about the direction of China’s rise. From North America to Europe, to East Asia to South Asia to Australia, more and more major countries are reassessing their relations with China. With regard to Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, which are regarded as core interests by the CCP, more countries have joined forces to counter the CCP’s propositions and practices. Some alliances to contain China have also emerged.

Common worries about the "China model" bring countries together

In 2021, the Chinese Communist Party, which has gone through a century of history, looks very confident. On the one hand, the CCP has spared no effort to exaggerate the decline of the United States and the West. On the other hand, it has hyped up the superiority of socialism with Chinese characteristics, emphasizing that "time and situation" are on its side. The CCP not only believes that the "China Model" it has created provides the world with a development model and plan that is different from Western systems.

Analysts believe that the multi-country counter-insurance against China is related to the rising China, but more importantly, the CCP’s approach, especially the "Chinese model" that the CCP claims to have created a development model for the world that is different from the Western system. The West is uneasy and worried.

Rodger Baker, senior vice president of Stratfor, an American geopolitical risk analysis agency, told VOA: “By providing this alternative, it (Beijing) has changed the way many countries view them with Europe and with Europe. The way of American relations. At the same time, this is also an attack on some strategic policies and ideas of the United States and Europe. In European and American countries, people will integrate the concepts of human rights and market rights into their policies and strategic ideas and use them in practice . They found that their (policies and strategies) are being pushed back by (China). So, this is not a problem of'strong China', it is that'strong China' is providing an alternative political, economic and cultural system that weakens the North Atlantic system."

Baker explained that in the North Atlantic, the common philosophy of European and American countries is that democracy, human rights, free markets, and economic growth go hand in hand and are necessary components. Without these components, economic growth and economic power would collapse.

In 2021, the CCP will continue to undermine Hong Kong’s legal system, human rights, and freedom of the press, create “genocide” in Xinjiang and use military intimidation against Taiwan. Internally, the CCP has tightened its control over private enterprises and further penalized freedom of speech; externally, the CCP has continued to impose economic coercion on Australia and other countries, and "wolf war" diplomacy has become the new normal of China's diplomacy.

Luke Patey, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute of International Studies and author of "How China Failed? The World Regains China's Global Ambition", also pointed out that the direction of the rise of the Chinese Communist Party worries the West.

He said: "There are various worries, different countries have different worries, but the common worries are the direction of China's rise. It is not just China's rise, but many countries celebrate and benefit from China's development. China The development of China has indeed achieved amazing achievements. For example, their Chinese people got rid of poverty. This is more about diplomacy. Some factors of China’s foreign policy are disrupting the interests and values of other countries."

More and more countries are developing relations with Taiwan.

Taiwan is regarded by the CCP as the "most central and most sensitive" issue. In 2021, the CCP has discovered that more and more countries are willing to touch this "core and sensitive" issue despite their own opposition and warnings. More and more countries are improving relations with Taiwan, and more and more countries are willing to help Taiwan expand its international space.

On December 15, a delegation composed of five cross-party members of the French National Assembly arrived in Taipei for a five-day visit to Taiwan. The head of the delegation and former Speaker Francois de Rugy said in Taipei that if there is no peace in the Taiwan Strait, there will be no stability. He condemned all threats.

Members of the French National Assembly delegation headed by François de Rugy, chairman of the Taiwan Friends Group of the French National Assembly, held a press conference in Taipei. (December 17, 2021)

Members of the French National Assembly delegation headed by François de Rugy, chairman of the Taiwan Friends Group of the French National Assembly, held a press conference in Taipei. (December 17, 2021)

From December 9 to 10, the United States invited Taiwan to attend the global "democracy summit", while China and Russia were excluded.

On November 18th, the Taiwan Representative Office in Lithuania was officially established. China immediately downgraded its diplomatic relations with Lithuania to "charge d'affaires level." However, Lithuania did not succumb to the pressure. On the contrary, Lithuania stated that it would make corresponding adjustments to cope with the pressure and set an example for other countries on how to withstand such pressure. At the end of November, representatives of the Lithuanian Parliament and parliamentarians from the other two Baltic countries, Latvia and Estonia, visited Taipei. In early December, Lithuania confirmed that it would boycott the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February.

Lithuania’s approach is supported by EU leaders. In fact, not only Lithuania, but the entire European attitude towards Beijing is changing. The EU is actually expanding its contacts and exchanges with Taiwan. In November, the European Parliament sent an official delegation to visit Taiwan for the first time in history. The head of the delegation, French member of the European Parliament, Raphaël Glucksmann, said that for Europe, Taiwan is a key and similar partner.

In October, the European Parliament passed the first "EU-Taiwan Political Relations and Cooperation" report, recommending that the EU improve its relations with Taiwan, including changing the name of Taiwan’s European Economic and Trade Office to "EU Taiwan Office" and launching a bilateral investment agreement program. The report emphasizes that the military conflict in the Taiwan Strait will not only cause major economic chaos that affects European interests, but will also severely disrupt the rule-based order in the region, as well as recommendations for democratic governance centered on human rights, democracy, and the rule of law.

Indo-Pacific Australia and Japan have also strengthened their relations with Taiwan, and the leaders of these two countries have stated that if something happens to Taiwan, it is hard to imagine that these two countries will "stand by and watch".

Canada is also strengthening its relations with Taiwan. In June this year, the Canadian House of Representatives unanimously passed the "Canada-Taiwan Relations Framework Act" (Canada-Taiwan Relations Framework Act). Important contents of the bill include: support for Taiwan’s participation in multilateral international organizations, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO); when the President of Taiwan or senior government officials visit Canada informally, they should be exempted from the federal immigration and refugee protection laws. The required visa requirements; when Canadian laws refer to foreign countries or their governments, Taiwan should be included; Canada and Taiwan may sign mutual agreements, including international agreements between countries. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly expressed support for Taiwan’s participation in the International Health Organization as early as January.

On the Western Pacific, multinational joint military exercises become the "new normal"

China claims sovereignty over 90% of the South China Sea. Since 2010, China has been reclaiming the sea to build islands in this area. It is an indisputable fact that China's strength in the South China Sea is increasing day by day. In 2021, this situation has changed. This year, countries such as Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Canada all dispatched warships to the South China Sea. On the other hand, the joint military exercises of various countries in the Western Pacific have continued. Analysts pointed out that this shows that the CCP's influence and ability to control the South China Sea is weakening.

At the end of November, the five navies of the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada, and Germany held a joint military exercise in the Philippine Sea in the Western Pacific. Germany was the first to participate in a military exercise in the Indo-Pacific region. In mid-October, the United States, Japan, India, and Australia launched the four-day second phase of the "Malabar" joint naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal.

Japan, India, Australia and the U.S. navies are holding joint military exercises. (August 27, 2021)

Japan, India, Australia and the U.S. navies are holding joint military exercises. (August 27, 2021)

It is also reported that the German Navy plans to regularly dispatch German frigates and supply ships to the Indo-Pacific region every two years. In mid-October, the United States, Japan, India, and Australia launched a four-day second phase of the "Malabar" alliance in the Bay of Bengal. Naval exercises. In order to carry out more in-depth defense cooperation with allies in the Indo-Pacific region.

Michael J. Green, senior vice president of Asian affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US think tank, said at a CSIS seminar on the four-party security dialogue mechanism in November that the navies of the US, Japan, India, and Australia are very strong. . These four countries act together to send a message to China that, as a democratic country, they must ensure the safety of trade channels and uphold the rule of law in internationally controversial areas.

In early October, warships from the United Kingdom, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, New Zealand, and the Netherlands conducted a joint exercise in the Philippine Sea. The British Secretary of Defense, Ben Wallace, announced in July that Britain will permanently deploy two warships to the Indo-Pacific waters.

The biggest military action in the Indo-Pacific region should be September when Britain, the United States, and Australia announced the establishment of the AUKUS tripartite security agreement. According to the agreement, the United States and Britain will help Australia develop nuclear submarines. Someone pointed out that this is the embryonic form of Western countries forming a military alliance in the Asia-Pacific region to deal with China.

It is worth mentioning that the United States has sent warships across the Taiwan Strait 11 times this year. In October, after Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou and Canada’s "Two Michaels" incident ended, the Royal Canadian Navy also sent frigates to cross the Taiwan Strait with U.S. warships.